The Group of Seven central banks will announce policy decisions over three days, starting with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Fed’s July 29 rate meeting follows cooler June consumer price data, but a sharp rise in oil prices due to Middle East tensions may shift the outlook.
Fed officials such as Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, who favor a rate increase, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh, may surprise markets with a hike. The decision will be informed by upcoming data on U.S. GDP and inflation.
Economic reports are expected to show that the U.S. economy grew at an annualised 2.1% rate in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending and business investment. A separate report will indicate that a core inflation measure slowed in June after gasoline prices fell, only to rise again.
Following the Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will set their rates, while the European Central Bank has signalled it is ready to raise rates again. Investors anticipate moves as early as September, though economists remain divided.
Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 a barrel, a key inflation risk that has also spurred concerns over rising gas prices, large AI investments and President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. These factors add pressure to the global economy.
Bond markets have reacted with higher yields across the G7, and the U.S. 30‑year Treasury yield is close to its highest level since 2007. The surge reflects investor anxiety over the renewed cost‑of‑living pressures.
In the Asia‑Pacific, several important policy decisions and trade releases are scheduled. Singapore’s central bank will adjust its currency band, while Pakistan will announce its policy rate.
Japan will release industrial output, retail sales, jobless data and Tokyo consumer prices for July, all of which guide the Bank of Japan’s policy. Taiwan will also publish its second‑quarter GDP on Friday.
Australia will report June consumer inflation, and Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter is set to speak after June data showed a strong labour market, raising expectations for further rate hikes.
South Korea will publish its July trade statistics on Saturday, showing record exports driven by AI technology. The first 20 days of July saw foreign shipments rise more than 50% year‑on‑year.
Euro‑zone data will include GDP growth, inflation readings and national statistics from Belgium, Ireland, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The ECB’s President Christine Lagarde highlighted a slight economic improvement and an inflation shock from the Iran conflict.
Germany’s Ifo business survey may shed light on how the Iran war and recent reforms in Berlin affect sentiment. The survey is due on Monday.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England’s rate decision on Thursday is expected to hold, though a minority may vote for a hike. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham will also discuss policy.
Chile is likely to keep its key rate at 4.5% for a fifth straight meeting, while Brazil’s inflation expectations for 2026, 2028, 2029 and 2030 are under scrutiny. Mexico will focus on a flash reading of April‑June output, which slipped to -0.6%.
Colombia’s central bank will conclude the week with a policy meeting. President Abelardo de la Espriella’s win may support the bank, but inflation expectations remain high, with year‑end forecasts above 6.6% versus a 3% target.
Overall, the week will be a busy one for monetary policy, data releases and trade figures, providing a comprehensive view of global economic conditions and central‑bank responses.