Barclays said the monsoon rainfall deficit in India has narrowed a bit in the last week. The deficit is now 11.0% below the long‑period average (LPA) as of 9 August, down from 11.6% on 2 August.
Rainfall intensity eased in central and parts of southern India last week. However, the northern Himalayan areas, Kerala and the northeast saw very heavy rains that caused flood‑like conditions. August rainfall so far is about 5% below LPA.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) expects normal to above‑normal rainfall from 13 to 19 August. Heavy rains are likely in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and southern coastal regions, including Kerala. The IMD also predicts below‑normal rainfall in the second half of the August‑September season.
Kharif sowing is almost finished. As of 7 August, 87.7% of the normal kharif area had been sown, a sharp rise from 81% on 31 July. Year‑on‑year, the sown area is still 1.8% lower. Rice acreage is down 4.4%. The decline in pulses and coarse cereals has narrowed to 1.8% and 2.7% respectively.
Barclays said that the focus will shift from acreage to crop yields now that sowing is nearly complete.
Reservoir storage has improved but remains uneven. As of 6 August, overall storage was 53% of live capacity, up from 44% a week earlier. Storage in the western region rose to 75.9% of capacity, while other regions stay around 45–47%.
The report highlighted that storage is still well above the level seen in 2023, an El Niño year. Overall, India’s monsoon situation shows signs of improvement, but uneven rainfall distribution and water storage remain key concerns for farmers and policymakers.