The first lockup for SpaceX shares expired on Aug. 6, and the market reacted strongly. The stock rose 35% in just five trading days, adding roughly $500 billion to its market value and moving above its $135 initial public offering price.
Andrew Plum, managing partner at Loxahatchee Capital, said the market had been “discounting a negative event” and that the actual outcome was usually less severe than feared.
In early Thursday trading, SpaceX shares fell 2.4%, showing that the rally was not guaranteed.
SpaceX went public on June 11 with a record $86 billion IPO. The shares surged in the first days, then fell more than $1 trillion in market value by early August. The lockup expiry was seen as a potential risk, but the market treated it as a blip.
Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, noted that the firm was “in brace mode” before the expiration, waiting to see what would happen.
The company used a nine‑stage lockup plan instead of the usual 180‑day restriction. The first and biggest block released 911.5 million shares, more than the IPO volume.
The next release on Aug. 20 will free up about 319 million shares, or 7% of the total restricted stock. Further 7% blocks will come in the coming months, and Musk’s 6.4 billion shares will unlock in June 2027.
Shares dropped 14% the day before the expiration, largely because of SpaceX’s first earnings report. The report showed higher‑than‑expected capital expenditures for artificial intelligence, but also a revenue beat and a better‑than‑expected loss per share.
Munster said that once investors saw the earnings were not a free fall, they reassessed the quarter and realized progress was being made.
During the earnings call, Elon Musk projected that SpaceX’s revenue would reach more than $100 billion annually by year‑end and $1 trillion by 2030 or possibly 2029.
Plum added that strong financial news can attract new buyers at current levels, preventing too much downward pressure.
Some investors believe that SpaceX’s base is more loyal to Elon Musk than to market fundamentals. David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors said that these investors bet on Musk’s vision rather than short‑term earnings.
Munster thinks the pattern of a dip before the release followed by a rise may repeat for future lockups, as long as insiders do not rush to sell.
Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Wayve Capital Management, warned that the stock will remain volatile. He said investors will swing between fear of long‑term cash flow and greed for Musk’s ambitious plans.
Overall, SpaceX investors should expect big swings as more shares hit the market and the company’s narrative evolves.